August 2024 Progress Update
California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment Marks Progress Toward Strengthening the State’s Understanding of Climate Impacts
Year after year, California faces an increasing number of natural disasters -- severe droughts, floods, wildfires, rising sea levels, and extreme heat, all caused by climate change.
To address these problems now – and to be ready for even more climate-related challenges in the future – we need to work together and invest in new climate change research. California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment is a project led by the California Governor's Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation in partnership with three other agencies: the California Energy Commission (CEC), California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), and Strategic Growth Council (SGC). The Fifth Assessment aims to strengthen our understanding of climate change vulnerabilities in California to help communities and leaders adapt to climate change impacts. It will include:
- Original research that addresses California-specific climate change priorities;
- A Tribal Research Program that incorporates tribal expertise and traditional knowledge into the assessment process;
- Reports that evaluate the potential effects of climate change on regional and statewide levels; and
- Tools and data resources to help communities, practitioners and leaders make wise, informed climate action decisions.
California's Climate Assessments are a multi-year research effort, bringing together government, academic, tribal, and community partners. By mid-2026, the reports, data, and key findings from the Fifth Assessment will be available to the public on the California Climate Assessment website. At this “halfway point,” we are excited about the progress we’ve made and we have a clear path ahead. Right now, new studies and data analysis are underway, subject matter experts are being recruited, and the Fifth Assessment team is excited to share updates on these important projects, which include:
- Climate data and models funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC).
- Core climate research overseen by the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), and tribally led research and energy research funded by the CEC.
- Regional and statewide reports led by the Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation (Go-LUCI) and the California Strategic Growth Council (SGC).
Whether you are new to climate change research or an expert, this information can help you understand and plan for future climate changes.
Climate Projections Data and Models
The latest climate change projections data and modeling will give us important information about California's future climate. This will help us make smart decisions for planning and investments. Experts from different fields have worked together to create detailed projections about future climate, sea levels, water systems, and wildfire risks. These resources can guide effective planning and efforts to ensure the long-term safety and prosperity of our state and its people.
With support from the Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC) Program, the CEC is funding high-resolution projections of California’s future climate, focusing on zero-carbon energy systems. This research is led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in partnership with UCLA. The results provide a range of possible futures for California and a more limited set of futures for the western region, applicable to electricity generation, planning, and resilience.
Additionally, the Scripps team is using the projections to model California’s future water systems and hourly sea levels along the California Coast, San Francisco Bay, and Sacramento Delta. Researchers from UC Merced, as part of a larger research group called the Pyregence Consortium (also supported by EPIC), are using these climate projections to create long-term wildfire risk scenarios in California.
For more information, see the California Climate Change Assessment Data Summaries on the Climate Data and Analysis Working Group home page or visit the Cal-Adapt Analytics Engine’s “data” page.
Original Climate Research
Core Climate Research
In Summer 2023, the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) at UC Berkeley, in partnership with CNRA, invited scientists to submit new research proposals related to climate change. This research aims to fill important gaps in our understanding of climate change impacts and how we can best adapt to it in California. The findings will help shape other reports in the Fifth Assessment, including regional and statewide studies.
Tribally Led Research
On Sept. 1, 2023, CEC announced $3.625 million in funding for a new grant program to fund tribes, tribal organizations, and tribal-serving non-government organizations to lead climate change research and projects. The Tribal Research Grant Program (TRGP) aims to support these tribal projects over two rounds of funding. In the first round, the CEC received eight proposals. All were reviewed, scored, and approved for a total of $1,857,685 in funding awards during the CEC’s July 10, 2024 and Aug. 14, 2024 business meetings. The TRGP received 11 applications for Round 2, which closed on July 31, 2024. Grant applications are currently being reviewed and a notice of proposed funding awards will be announced in the coming weeks.
Energy Research
The CEC is also funding research to support California’s energy transition, climate change response, and adaptation planning through the EPIC Program and Gas Research and Development Program. This research aims to ensure a reliable, resilient, and cost-effective move to 100% clean energy. For more information, see “Ongoing CEC-funded Climate Research” on the Climate Data and Analysis Working Group website (C-DAWG) website.
Ongoing efforts include enhancing scientific expertise and data resources to support energy sector planning and adaptation, supporting rulemaking processes, and researching zero-carbon energy supply and resilient system planning.
Regional and Topical Reports
These reports will provide the latest science and information on climate change, focusing on nine regions in California and important statewide issues. The information in these reports will help communities understand and respond to current and future climate impacts.
Regional Reports
Regional Reports will be created for each of the nine California Climate Assessment regions. These reports will include new research, data, and community input about the impacts of climate change. Building on the Fourth Assessment and with input from experts and community partners, the Fifth Assessment’s regional boundaries were updated to focus on key areas. Authors are finalizing their teams, including community advisors and other contributors. Each team will use engagement strategies aligned with the California Strategic Growth Council (Participatory Research to Policy Model), to involve communities in every step of the research process. Teams will host regional engagement events to shape the reports and highlight community priorities. Stay tuned for opportunities to contribute!
Meet the Regional Report Coordinating Lead Authors:
- Central Coast: Ruth Langridge, UC Santa Cruz
- Inland Deserts: Francesca Hopkins, UC Riverside
- Los Angeles: Jesse Norris, UC Los Angeles
- North Coast: Andrew Stubblefield & Rosemary Sherriff, Cal Poly Humboldt
- Sacramento Valley: Helene G. Margolis, UC Davis
- San Diego: Julie Kalansky & Tom Corringham, UC San Diego
- San Francisco Bay Area: Louise Bedsworth, UC Berkeley
- San Joaquin Valley: John Abatzoglou, UC Merced
- Sierra Nevada: Safeeq Khan, UC Merced
Topical Reports
Topical Reports will address statewide climate change issues, summarizing the best available information on specific subjects. These areas were based on the foundation set in the Fourth Assessment and refined through community engagement and guidance from the Climate Assessment's statute (SB 1320, Stern 2020). The topics include:
- Racial Equity and Climate Justice: Effects of climate change on racial equity and climate justice in California.
- Climate-Induced Human Displacement and Migration: Effects of climate change on human displacement and migration in California.
- Climate Impacts on the Economy: Economic impacts of climate change events and trends in California.
- Tribal and Indigenous Communities: Effects of climate change on Native American Tribes within California, highlighting tribally led research and Indigenous knowledge.
Meet the Topical Reports Coordinating Lead Authors:
- Tribal and Indigenous Communities: Don Hankins, Chico State
- Racial Equity and Climate Justice: To be announced
- Climate-Induced Human Migration and Displacement: To be announced
- Climate Impacts on the Economy: To be announced